We’ve saved the best for last. The ultimate decider of the 2000 election, the Sunshine State is the most valuable swing state in the sense of electoral votes. Many recall - or at least know about - the...
The fact that Pennsylvania is a swing state is an odd one, since no Republican has carried it since 1988. However, the number of Republican and Democratic voters is close. In the state’s primary, Democrats...
The Buckeye State is home to an odd pattern: since 1964, no presidential candidate has won the general election without carrying Ohio. This means whoever carries Ohio will likely win the entire election.
But...
Michigan is similar to Arizona in the sense that it isn’t really considered a swing state. The last time it voted Republican was 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis in a landslide victory....
Like Virginia, North Carolina does not generally vote Democratic. In 2012, it was the only swing state of that election that Mitt Romney won.
Right now, polls are constantly going back and forth between...
Virginia wasn’t really considered a swing state until 2008, when Obama carried it then, and again in 2012. Before that, the last time Virginia voted Democratic was 1964. While being a swing state, it...
Arizona is generally not a swing state. A Democrat has only once carried since 1948, and has produced two Republican presidential nominees since 1964 (Barry Goldwater and John McCain). So why might it...
As useful as the information can be, using primary and caucus results as a reference for how states will lean in the general election is difficult and unreliable for a couple of reasons:
Primary turnout...
It’s hard to compare numbers from the primary season in Colorado because Republicans didn’t really have a vote in the state. The GOP held precinct caucuses, but they did not affect delegate allocation....
Like Iowa, three out of four US Representatives from Nevada are Republican. The Senate, however, tells a different story. Nevada is home to the current Senate Minority Leader, Harry Reid. Reid has served...
